I love stats. No, not sample proportions, Z-scores and standard deviations. We’re talking OPS, quarterback rating and plus-minus. Who needs median test score when you can have opponents’ free-throw percentage (a stat that roughly translates to luck)?
For as long as I can remember, I’ve obsessed over the facts and figures in every sport I watch. Even if I didn’t watch a Bucks game all year, I would still find it fascinating that no Milwaukee player had done X, Y and Z against the Clippers since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1973, way back when they were the Buffalo Braves. I routinely told my uninterested friends and family about the latest person to reach the 23 home run-11 steal-61 walk-.985 fielding percentage milestone or the first multi-homer game by a player with the last name ending in “son” as part of a weekend day-night doubleheader in interleague play.
Despite the clear social deficiencies I have from being so absorbed by statistics, I still follow them obsessively. When I find out that Arizona backup quarterback Matt Scott had a more efficient game against Washington than starter Nick Foles has ever had, or that Stanford has had more players score a touchdown than any team in the country, I still run around telling anyone I can find.
So what is the point of all these stats? What can they really tell you? Well, there is a saying that you can make statistics say whatever you want. To some extent, this is true, although some arguments (Washington State is a better football team than Oregon, Mark Ingram deserved the Heisman Trophy over Toby Gerhart last year, Jake Locker is a better quarterback than Andrew Luck, etc.) require a little more work for the arguer than others.
Most situations allow for statistical arguments on both sides, such as who will win the World Series or whether or not Brett Favre should keep the starting quarterback job. With this in mind, here are statistical reasons why Stanford will beat Washington and reasons why it won’t.
A quick look at the basic stats gives a significant advantage to the Cardinal. On the NCAA’s website, each team is ranked in 17 statistical categories—scoring, total, passing, rushing, passing efficiency and sack averages for both offense and defense, punting average, punt and kick return average, tackles for loss and turnover margin. Of these 17, Stanford ranks in the top half of the Pac-10 in 12 and is only in the bottom three in punting, punt returning and tackles for loss. Meanwhile, Washington is in the top half in just one category (fourth in sacks allowed) and is in the bottom three in nine categories, including all-important scoring offense and scoring defense.
In fact, the only categories in which Washington leads Stanford are punting, punt returning and tackles for loss, and the Huskies are no more than two spots above the Cardinal in any of the three. The records of both teams support these statistics, as Stanford is 6-1 (4-0 at home, 2-1 on the road) while Washington is 3-4 (2-2 at home, 1-2 on the road).
The Cardinal appears to have a fairly significant edge in all the major categories (70 more yards per game, 62 fewer yards per game allowed, 18 more points per game and nine fewer points per game allowed). However, looking more closely, Stanford’s statistics are somewhat inflated by its early season play, while its recent numbers have been much weaker.
After its first four games, Stanford ranked in the top three in the Pac-10 in 11 of the 17 categories, and was in the top 20 in the nation in 10 of them, including passing efficiency defense, total defense and scoring defense. Then the Cardinal played Oregon, USC and Washington State, and the defense got shredded. Stanford allowed 115 points and 926 passing yards in those three games, and it has shown in its overall rankings. The Cardinal is now in the top 20 nationally in only five categories, and is no better than 58th in passing efficiency defense, total defense and scoring defense.
These holes in the Stanford secondary have been widening with the injury to starting strong safety Delano Howell, and Washington could expose them this weekend. Despite middling 2010 stats (eighth in the Pac-10 in passing efficiency), Jake Locker has been much better of late. Following an embarrassing performance against Nebraska in September (4-20 passing, two interceptions), Locker has been in better form, completing 60 percent of his passes over the last four games with eight touchdowns and only one interception in that span.
The Cardinal defense was able to shut down Locker last year, but much of that success was due to Howell, who picked off Locker twice in that game, and an injury to Locker. If Howell does not play, and if the defense plays the way it has of late, Stanford could be in for a tough contest. Husky Stadium has not been kind to opponents over the years, and the Cardinal is no exception. Stanford is only 6-21 against Washington since 1977 and lost 12 straight meetings in Seattle from 1983 to 2003.
On the other hand, you could look at recent results and see that Stanford has won at Husky Stadium each of its last two trips and has beaten Washington four of the past five times the teams have met.
It’s all in the way you look at the numbers. The oddsmakers have set their number at seven, the expected margin of victory for Stanford. But the numbers that really matter, the points on the scoreboard, will have to wait until Saturday.
Jacob Jaffe ranks first in total readers confused by a single column. Find out what his audience plus-minus is at jwjaffe “at” stanford.edu.