Two more days. Two more days until Big Game, when all the trash talk, rituals and obscene plays give way to a single football game. Two days until the destination of the Axe is decided, and two days until Stanford’s Rose Bowl dreams face one of their final tests.
We all know what rides on this game. Everything from bragging rights to bowl berths to record books hangs in the balance, and it’ll all be decided in one afternoon in the remnants of what must have once been a decent stadium in Berkeley.
This is a rivalry game, and as everyone knows, in rivalry games, “you can throw records and statistics out the window.” I don’t know about you, but I find it hard to defenestrate theoretical objects. So, for everyone who needs stats to toss aside with bold claims of “It doesn’t matter, it’s a rivalry game!” here you go.
Speaking of things that don’t matter to this game, let’s look at the history of the series. Stanford has won 55 of the 112 Big Games, while Cal has won 46. Yep, 11 duels between these teams have ended in draws. Thank the Lord Jeffs we don’t need to worry about that anymore. Of games played in Berkeley, the Cardinal holds a slim 23-21-6 advantage. Recent history has favored the Golden Bears, though, as Cal has won seven of the past eight Big Games. Before that, Stanford had won the previous seven consecutive battles for the Axe.
Slightly more relevant than the battle between Chad Hutchinson and Justin Vedder are the current teams and the seasons they’re having. Stanford comes in 9-1 on the season, while Cal is 5-5, but really, who cares about records, right? It’s not like the better team usually wins football games. You can easily trump that with broad statements like “It’s a rivalry game.”
If records are worthless, than who in the world would care about stats? Who would care that Cal is 4-1 at home and 1-4 on the road? No one. Since football is so unpredictable, Cal’s pattern of wins and losses makes no sense. Ok, sure, Cal has lost to every team ranked above it in the conference and beaten every team below it. But these are just words. Here are some numbers: Cal’s wins have come against teams with a combined record of 19-31 (including a 5-5 FCS team) while its losses have come against teams with a combined record of 37-12. No team it has beaten has a winning record, while every team but 4-5 Oregon State that it has lost to is currently ranked in the AP Top 25.
What carries Cal in its victories, and the reason the Golden Bears got so close to upsetting top-ranked Oregon last weekend, is defense. Stanford head coach Jim Harbaugh called it the best defense the Cardinal will see all year, and compared preparing for it to preparing for an NFL team. Ignoring for a moment that Harbaugh said similar things about Arizona’s defense before Stanford exploded for 42 points, he does have a point. Cal is ranked in the top 15 nationally in total defense, passing efficiency defense and sacks. And, of course, it only allowed one offensive touchdown to the best scoring offense in the country.
On the other hand, the maligned, and at some points ridiculed, Stanford defense ranks lower than Cal in every statistical category…except points allowed. But again, that’s just a worthless stat. Go throw it in the trash where it belongs.
All right, so Stanford doesn’t give up as many points as Cal. That’s all because of the schedule, right? Well, of the Cardinal’s six common opponents with the Bears, three scored more against Stanford, while three scored more against Cal. The one remaining team on Cal’s schedule after Big Game is Washington, who put up a goose egg against Stanford, while the remaining game on Stanford’s schedule is against Oregon State, who dropped 35 points on Cal two weeks before losing to Washington State.
Yeah, yeah, but these are just numbers. Big-time players show up big when it counts, like in rivalry games. Big-time players like Cal quarterback Brock Mansion, who has filled in for the inept Kevin Riley by showing why he was the backup in the first place. Mansion has completed 47 percent of his passes with one touchdown and two interceptions in three games. But he’s older (and therefore more able to handle the pressure) than Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck, who at age 21 has shown that he’s hardly prepared for the stress of a big game.
Since you need to round out that pile of garbage, meaningless statistics, let’s look at both teams’ offenses. Obviously it doesn’t mean anything, but Stanford is at least 35 spots above Cal nationally in passing efficiency, passing offense, sacks allowed, rushing offense, total offense and scoring offense. Can’t imagine any of those coming into play.
To summarize, Stanford has no possible advantage over Cal, because it’s a rivalry game and statistics are worthless. Have fun throwing them out the window.
Jacob Jaffe loves defenestrating. Tell him how naughty he is at jwjaffe “at” stanford.edu.