In its 113-year history, there has always been far more at stake between cross-Bay rivals Stanford and California than just a wood chopping tool, but perhaps this year’s Big Game could be a critical one.

Looking back at the history of the 112 games between the two, there have been some pretty important encounters, from the first ever game in 1892 to the return to normality after the Second World War.

Over this time, the whole pageantry and lore of the rivalry also grew step by step. The Axe first appeared in 1899, but after being stolen by California for 31 years and subsequently recovered by Stanford, it wasn’t until 1933 that it became the official trophy of the Big Game. Oski made his first appearance in 1941, and, after Stanford dropped its original mascot in 1972, the Leland Stanford Junior University Marching Band (LSJUMB) debuted the Tree in 1975.

After breaking from its saner roots, the LSJUMB also caused one of the most bizarre upsets at the end of a football game, now infamously known as “The Play,” in 1982. Rushing the field in celebration of a Cardinal victory a few seconds too early, they allowed Cal to score a game-winning touchdown amid the confusion.

But, apart from historical curiosity, none of those necessarily hold special significance for the football teams, at least in the only thing that should really matter to them: success.

To look for those games, we need to consider the relative form of the two sides in the eras the games were played, and see what the effect of wins, or losses, were. Basically, look for the games that were crucial turning points in the teams’ success.

In the 1920s, Cal was on a high, not dropping a single game in a five-year streak that saw it win the 1921 Rose Bowl. Stanford, meanwhile, struggled, scoring just seven points against the Bears from 1920 to 1923, and by 1924, California had defeated the Cardinal in five straight games.

But that year marked the beginning of Glenn “Pop” Warner’s tenure as Stanford coach, and his arrival secured both equality in the Big Game (a 20-20 tie) and the Pac-10 title. It also marked the beginning of the end for Cal’s dominance. Head coach Andy Smith signed off the next year with a loss, and his next two successors did not come close to his record.

When Stub Allison came to Berkeley in 1935, Cal had won just once in the last 10 years. A hugely improved first season was marred by just one loss, 13-0 to Stanford, but turning this around in 1936, the Card would not score a single point against Cal for three years, years in which Berkeley won two Rose Bowls. Claude E. Thornhill’s Stanford swiftly went from winning the 1936 Rose Bowl to mediocrity.

Clark Shaughnessy quickly enacted revenge in his very short period, just two years, in charge at the Farm. As Allison’s team began to falter, Shaughnessy set out on a formidable 10-0 Rose Bowl-winning 1940 season.

For the next 30 years, the Cardinal returned to relative obscurity, and though the Golden Bears under Pappy Waldorf were strong in the late ‘40s, the lack of a strong cross-Bay rival takes some of the edge off of the importance of its victories in the Big Game back then. When Waldorf’s team slipped back in the ‘50s, it was in no way a consequence of any real Stanford resurgence in the Big Game.

The same argument doesn’t hold in 1972. Then, Stanford had won back-to-back Rose Bowls, but had just lost its coach, John Ralston. It was a great opportunity for Cal to help break any momentum that the Cardinal may have built up, and that is exactly what it did.

From this hastily researched version of history, the years 1924, 1936, 1940 and 1972 stand out as turning points where the Big Game result marked the resurgence of one team at the cost of the other, and 2009 was almost on this list.

Stanford still had outside hopes of the Pac-10 title resting on winning its final conference game and a little bit of luck from elsewhere, and fans were excited by the chances of its star running-back, Toby Gerhart, scooping up the Heisman Trophy. The Card was guaranteed its first bowl game and winning record since 2001, and the Bears were looking at their seventh straight bowl game.

The Cal victory put the brakes on Stanford’s much-improved season, and could have been even more significant were it not for this year.

Stanford will walk on to the field at Memorial Stadium with a season record of 9-1 and a No. 6 BCS ranking that makes it a clear favorite to play in one of the highly prized BCS bowl games. Head coach Jim Harbaugh’s team has improved each year, and star quarterback Andrew Luck is in serious contention for the Heisman Trophy and will find it very hard to turn down a potential selection in the first round of the NFL Draft to stay for two more years on the Farm.

California, in comparison, sits at 5-5 in a thoroughly mid-table position and far outside the national top 25. A win against Stanford, though, would ensure the Golden Bears are again bowl eligible and also make Jeff Tedford the most successful Big Game coach ever, with eight wins.

Success breeds success, and failure breeds failure. Cal fans will want the cruel glory of destroying the high-flying aspirations of their rivals. Harbaugh will want to build on what he has achieved so far at the Farm to attract more talented players and create a golden era for the Cardinal football program.

Tomorrow’s game could be a major step on that path, or when his best laid plans are pulled apart. California vs. Stanford 2010 is definitely a Big Game.