With the 113th Big Game set for kickoff tomorrow, the stakes could not be higher for either team.
The No. 6 Stanford football team is experiencing some of its greatest success in recent memory. The Cardinal (9-1, 6-1 Pac-10) has its best record through 10 games in 59 years, and is shooting for the program’s first Rose Bowl appearance since 2000. Stanford managed to survive a scare on the road at Arizona State last weekend, pulling off a 17-13 win despite a weak rushing attack.
Across the Bay, California (5-5, 3-4) has had a roller coaster ride of a season thus far. The Golden Bears have been one of the nation’s more puzzling teams, since they look nearly unstoppable inside Strawberry Canyon but utterly hapless away from it. Cal has won every one of its home games by blowout margins, except for last weekend’s close 15-13 loss to No. 1 Oregon.
Even then, the Bears managed to do what no other team, including the Cardinal, could do: slow down the Ducks and keep them from rolling up video game-like numbers on offense. Meanwhile, they have lost every road game except for a 20-13 victory at Washington State two weeks ago.
This Big Game will have significant bowl implications for both Stanford and Cal.
The Cardinal still has hopes for an invitation to a prestigious BCS bowl, but would see those hopes extinguished with a loss to Cal. Stanford’s best chance is to receive an at-large berth, since the Pac-10’s automatic berth will go to Oregon if it wins the conference. Officials from the Rose Bowl were present at Stanford’s last home game against then-No. 15 Arizona, and Sugar Bowl representatives made the trip to Tempe last weekend to see the Card take on the Sun Devils.
With a win over Stanford, the Golden Bears will gain bowl eligibility and be guaranteed another trip to the postseason. Cal could even get into one of the bowls higher in the Pac-10’s pecking order due to the dearth of bowl-eligible teams in the conference this season.
However, even if Cal falls to Stanford, it still has a strong chance to earn bowl eligibility, with a home game against Washington to close out its season next weekend.
After its lackluster performance last weekend, the focus will be squarely on the Stanford offense to reach the same level that it achieved against Arizona and Washington, when it scored over 40 points in each game. Led by redshirt sophomore quarterback Andrew Luck, the unit only mustered 17 points against the Sun Devils and committed two turnovers, one on an interception and the other on a Luck fumble.
Despite those miscues, Luck had another strong game against the Arizona State secondary, throwing for 292 yards on 33-41 passing. He leads the conference in passing efficiency with a 159.7 rating and in total yardage (running and passing) with 288.4 yards per game.
The biggest reason for Stanford’s struggles against ASU was its failure to get its running game going early in the contest. The Cardinal offense has relied on the run all season to set the pace for the offense, utilizing the offensive line to dominate at the line of scrimmage and open up running lanes for Stanford’s talented rotation of tailbacks. Forcing opponents to respect the run also opened up the passing attack for Luck and his receivers.
The Sun Devil front seven provided a blueprint for stopping that dimension of Stanford’s offense, as linebacker Vontaze Burfict and the rest of his unit established control of the line of scrimmage early in the game. Stanford sophomore Stepfan Taylor, the featured back in Stanford’s offense, was severely limited, going for only 39 yards on 16 carries. Overall, Stanford rushed 42 times for just 128 yards, a 3.0 yards-per-carry average.
That blueprint for stopping the Card is certainly one that the Bears could be capable of executing. Cal used a similar game plan to limit Oregon, and has a stud linebacker of its own in Mike Mohamed, who is 10th in the conference with 7.7 tackles per game. Against Oregon, Cal did a good job of stuffing the run, only giving up 162 yards on 55 carries, good for a measly 2.9 yards-per-carry average. The Bears’ defense has also been spectacular at home; the highest point total it has surrendered in Memorial Stadium is 17, to Arizona State, and it held three of its five home foes (including Arizona) to single-digit points.
However, Cal is vulnerable on offense after losing starting quarterback Kevin Riley to injury for the season. In two starts, backup Brock Mansion has looked fairly underwhelming, throwing two picks in a 12-24, 171-yard performance in his first outing against lowly Washington State. Against the Ducks, Mansion completed only 10 of 28 passes for 69 yards, and added -1 yards on two rushes.
The Golden Bears do have a respectable rushing attack, led by running back Shane Vereen, who is averaging nearly 100 yards per game. Vereen has 13 touchdowns on the season and averages 5.2 yards per carry. Stanford fans will likely remember Vereen from last season’s Big Game at Stanford Stadium, when he gashed the Cardinal for 193 yards on 42 carries and scored three touchdowns, leading the Bears to a 34-28 victory.
Stanford will need another strong performance from a defensive unit that has undergone a renaissance in recent weeks. Since giving up 28 points to Washington State on Oct. 23, the Cardinal has shut out Washington and held Arizona and Arizona State to 17 and 13 points, respectively. Though Stanford has not looked as good on the stat sheet, it has a propensity for making key plays and momentum-killing stops at critical points in the game.
The defense has also dominated opposing offensive lines, especially with the play of senior linebacker Owen Marecic and sophomore linebacker Shayne Skov. The defensive line, led by redshirt junior Matt Masifilo, has also done a strong job of engaging opposing offensive lines and freeing up the linebacking corps to make plays.
With postseason hopes on the line for both teams, Stanford will take on Cal in the 113th Big Game on Saturday at 12:30 p.m. at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley.