Let’s face it: Andrew Luck’s decision to return to school does very little for his football future. He’s a finished product who was the guaranteed No. 1 choice in 2011. He’d be a multimillionaire multiple times over come April. So why come back?

“It’s a Rorschach test for people’s values system.”

That’s his father, Oliver Luck, talking to the (many, many) people who question Luck’s choice. Because for his son, it’s not about the millions: it’s about education, and it’s about the potential to take Stanford to heights unseen in the modern era. In an era where the idea of the amateur athlete is questioned on a seemingly day-to-day basis, Luck’s decision epitomizes the concept of the student-athlete. And the rub is this: it’s not that surprising. His public statements hinted at him staying, and the decision fits exactly with his humble, studious persona.

But armchair quarterbacks, wallowing in their ignorance, will always question that which they do not know. So let’s break this down, and look at why Luck stayed. To do so, let’s first look at the reasons to leave. They number exactly two: money and injury risk.

To the first: the NFL is currently negotiating a new Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA), with one of the tenets being a rookie wage scale. Simply put, the idea of first-year players making the most money at their position before playing a snap is troubling to many. When the new CBA is signed, the salaries are expected to be far lower than they are now–that is to say, Sam Bradford’s $50 million in guaranteed money is a thing of that past. But not so fast: the CBA discussions are heated, and a lockout is entirely possible. If that happens, a draft will still occur, but no scale will be implemented. If that is the case, then Luck would have one shot to make a dramatic sum of money off the bat.

By 2012, a scale will be in place, and he’ll stand to make tens of millions of dollars less. But Luck comes from a financially secure background, and has made it clear over and over that money is not an object for him; his father’s comments confirm it. Even if the wage scale lowers his earning power to about three million a year–Peter King’s projection–he’s still in the top two percent of wage earners in the United States. More than enough to live comfortably, and if he really is as good as he’s projected to be, he’ll make his tens of millions on his next deal.

To the second: Luck is the guaranteed No. 1 pick in 2011. He is also all but guaranteed No. 1 in 2012. Any scout from coast to coast will tell you that he is a historically gifted prospect; some say he’s the best since Peyton Manning, while others say he’s the best since John Elway. No player will supplant him if he stays healthy. (Perish any Jake Locker comparisons–one guy is a quarterback; the other is a superior athlete who throws the ball occasionally.) Manning was projected No. 1 after his junior year, remained in school, and went No. 1 after his senior season. If he’s injured, it’s still unlikely, unless it’s (knock furiously on wood) career-ending. Bradford was projected to go first overall in 2009, went back to school, got injured and barely played, then still went No. 1 in 2010. That is to say, Luck is almost certainly going to be the first person walking across the stage in New York in April 2012, even if his arm is in a sling. He’s not exactly hurting his draft stock by staying.

With those two concerns aside, why go? If there is indeed an NFL lockout, he won’t be able to participate in mini-camps and might have to miss part of the season. Luck is a football player; he doesn’t want to sit on the sideline. The team he’d be going to, the Carolina Panthers, is notoriously cheap to the point where it refuses to sign free agents. It’s not exactly the best situation.

But forget the NFL. Luck, a high school valedictorian and a dedicated student in a time-intensive engineering degree program, gets a chance to finish his degree. In its press release, Stanford made that seem like his primary reason for staying.

In a football sense, with Luck under center, Stanford is a legitimate national title contender next season, even with the team hemorrhaging seniors. And, in terms of Jim Harbaugh, let’s not overlook the timing of this announcement–from the time Luck came out with his decision until The Daily’s print deadline, Stanford’s chances of keeping its coach have seemingly risen dramatically, with the Miami Dolphins dropping out and the Cardinal reportedly matching San Francisco’s offer. Luck gives Harbaugh an incentive to stay when 24 hours prior, it seemed like Harbaugh had one foot out the door.

Finally, if he cared about individual accomplishments–he doesn’t, but everyone else does–Luck is the clear Heisman favorite going into 2011 and almost surely a consensus preseason first team All-American.

Which is all to say: the chance for a title, the ability to complete his undergraduate academic career and the knowledge that he’s practically guaranteed to be the top pick in 2012 means there’s more than enough reason to stay in school.