The Stanford men’s water polo team will face USC this Saturday in a crucial Mountain Pacific Sports Federation matchup. The result will go a long way toward determining whether or not Stanford will eventually secure an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament.

Saturday’s game–to be played at USC’s McDonald’s Swim Stadium– will be the third meeting between the two teams this year. No. 3 Stanford (14-3, 3-1 MPSF) took its first loss of the season against USC at the NorCal Invitational by a score of 12-5. But the Cardinal returned the favor in the two teams’ next meeting, ending No. 2 USC’s undefeated start with a 6-4 win at the SoCal Tournament.

The results have given the Cardinal a sense of guarded confidence.

“We know we can beat them, we just have to play our game and play well. But we also remember the first game too,” said junior driver Paul Rudolph.

USC currently sits alone atop the MPSF standings with a perfect 4-0 conference record. Stanford is right on the Trojans’ heels, however, sitting in a three-way tie with California and UCLA for second at 3-1. A win this weekend would put Stanford in a four-way tie for first place.

Even with first place in the conference at stake, this game holds much more importance in terms of its postseason implications. The winner of the MPSF Tournament receives an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, but an at-large bid is also given out to the team with the most impressive record. With Stanford and USC currently ranked in the top three, both teams are in contention for that bid.

“This is our most important game right now. This would be a huge win right now, and we need it,” Rudolph said.

In order to get that win, the Cardinal will need to repeat its defensive effort that held USC to only four goals in their last meeting.

USC and Stanford boast the top two defenses and two of the best goalies in the MPSF. USC leads the conference this year with only 71 goals against, an average of 4.73 goals against per game. Stanford is right behind them, having allowed 91 goals this year (5.35 per game).

Both of those defenses are anchored by experienced senior goalies. Stanford’s Brian Pingree is the starter for the second year in a row, and USC’s Joel Dennerley leads a team that returns every one of its starters from last year’s championship squad.

Among those returning from USC’s championship run is senior driver Peter Kurzeka, who leads the team with 26 goals on the season. Kurzeka has scored in 13 of USC’s 15 games and has scored multiple goals in seven of those games.

Kurzeka and the rest of USC’s team beat Stanford in overtime in last year’s MPSF final, claiming the automatic birth to the NCAA Tournament. Stanford did not receive the at-large bid and had to stay at home as USC went on to win the national title.

One Cardinal player absent from the Farm for that loss was freshman utility Alex Bowen. Bowen, who will be relied on to try and crack the USC defense, currently leads Stanford with 39 goals. That mark makes him the fourth-leading scorer in the MPSF and the only freshman in the top 15 overall.

Stanford and USC face off in a top-tier showdown at 2:30 p.m. this Saturday in Los Angeles.