Stanford 31, Oklahoma State 30
The Cowboys are favored and deserve to be. I know it’s annoying when people say this, but I really feel like Oklahoma State would win about six out of 10 meetings between these two teams, but I think Stanford could pull this one out. And yes, I’m biased. But I’m not going to predict my last game as a Stanford student to be a loss. And more importantly, I’m not going to predict Andrew Luck’s last game as a Stanford student to be a loss.
Statistically (the way I usually look at games), the Cowboys look like the better team. They’ve played a tougher schedule and have been more successful. Stanford can’t match up with Oklahoma State’s speed and precision on offense, and the Cardinal offense isn’t built to win back-and-forth shootouts. Quite simply, Stanford isn’t the kind of team that can win a Baylor-Washington-esque game.
But I picked Stanford to win, which means that I don’t think we’re heading for as much of a scoreboard-buster as many believe (the over-under for the Fiesta Bowl is the second-highest of any bowl, behind only the aforementioned Baylor-Washington pointsapalooza). Both these teams do have high-powered offenses and big-name weapons, but they also have tough defenses that make big plays when they need to. I think each team will make a crucial play or two to keep the score reasonable.
In the end, I think Stanford’s biggest edge is its intangibles. The Cardinal has just been to a BCS bowl, whereas Oklahoma State hasn’t, so the big stage will be easier for Stanford to handle. The Cowboys also think they should be playing in the title game, so they might not be as focused as Stanford, which is happy to be playing in a big game in front of its sold-out section of fans.
Oklahoma State will come out flat, allowing Stanford to take a lead and use its running game to churn some clock. The Cowboys will respond to take the lead, setting the stage for Luck to cap off his college career in style.
And that’s exactly what he’ll do.
–Jacob Jaffe
Stanford 36, Oklahoma State 44
No need to bury the lead here: I’m not feeling very confident in the Cardinal in this one. Why? Something about Stanford’s level of offensive play has dropped off recently. After crushing subpar teams early on this season with a confident and dynamic attack, the Cardinal offense has looked flat and predictable in its last three games. Simply put, that won’t work against Oklahoma State. Brandon Weeden, Justin Blackmon and Joseph Randle are a powerful offensive chimera and can exploit all kinds of holes in the Cardinal defense, and nothing is going to keep them from putting points on the board. Therefore, I can see this game playing out like the last two Stanford-Oregon matchups, where the Cardinal was just unable to keep pace in the second half. So it all boils down to this: Stanford will need to wake up from its recent offensive hibernation if it expects to win this game, or else it will be left empty-handed in Andrew Luck’s final game in a Cardinal uniform.
–Jack Blanchat