So … you’re saying there’s a chance?

Yep.

Wait, didn’t you tell me that Stanford is officially out of the Playoff picture as of a few days ago?

Well … for the most part, yeah, and I hope I’m not getting your hopes up too much with this column. But given that Stanford is still ranked at No. 11 in the CFP poll after its loss to Oregon, there’s a nontrivial chance that a healthy amount of chaos causing the dominoes to fall a certain way could potentially let a two-loss Stanford sneak into the playoff.

Great, because a two-loss Stanford should absolutely get in over a _____-loss <conference> team because everybody knows <conference> doesn’t play real non-conference ga—

I’m not here to have an argument about conference strength or whether the Big 12 has a garbage schedule or whatnot. That’s for the Playoff committee to ultimately decide, and I’m not crazy enough to try and predict what it’ll do. Instead, I’m here to explain what some of those dominoes that Stanford will need to fall will be in order for the Cardinal to have a chance at the final four in a few weeks — in short, who you should be rooting for (other than Stanford, of course).

There are a couple of baseline assumptions I’m making in this upcoming series of columns, and whether fans of <conference> feel they’re justified or not, I feel reasonably confident in making these assumptions given the first three weeks of CFP polls (I’ll amend these in the coming weeks as I see fit):

• An undefeated Group of Five team will not make the Playoff. Sorry, Houston.
• A two-loss SEC champion would get in over a two-loss Stanford. If not, the South would secede from the Union. Which, admittedly, wouldn’t be a huge loss.
• A two-loss Stanford would get in over a two-loss Notre Dame. I think the Irish have a better schedule, but the final-week head-to-head loss to Stanford would give the Cardinal the edge here.
• A one-loss Big Ten champion is in unless its name is Iowa. If Iowa were to win the Big Ten with one loss, it would have a very late loss to Purdue or Nebraska. Yuck.
• A one-loss ACC champion is out. It’s undefeated Clemson or bust. Sorry, North Carolina.
• Stanford would probably edge out a one-loss Big 12 champion. This is for the same reason a one-loss Stanford would have an argument against an undefeated Big 12 champion — as one of the Big 12 powerhouses emerges from the pack, the others have to drop because someone has to lose those games. Big wins over TCU, Baylor, OSU and OU will look worse after the fact because those teams will drop as a result. Oklahoma worries me a little, though.

And, of course, it goes without saying that Stanford needs to win out. With all of those assumptions in mind (which may or may not be sound, who the hell knows at this point), here are your rooting interests for this week’s slate of games. I’ll have a similar column out next week. I’ve only picked the more important (and less obvious) ones, because it’s obviously best if as many teams ranked above Stanford lose as is humanly possible.

Week 12

LSU at Ole Miss

Ole Miss is your best friend for the next few weeks. If Ole Miss wins out and gets some help from Auburn beating Alabama (okay, a man can dream) the Rebels can still win the SEC West despite having three losses. A three-loss SEC champion Ole Miss is your best-case scenario. This would kill the LSU.

USC at Oregon

One of these two teams is dropping out of the rankings no matter what after this game. Although this would mean that Stanford needs to win Big Game in order to clinch the North, you also want Utah to win the Pac-12 South (see below) and that involves USC losing this game. Although USC dropping out of the top 25 would kill another quality win for Stanford, beating a highly-ranked Utah in the conference championship would help more than a “quality” win over USC would.

UCLA at Utah

You want Utah to win the South. Because Utah is highest-ranked right now among the South contenders, a win over the Utes in the Pac-12 Championship would mean the most. If Utah lost to Stanford in the championship, it would stay ranked. USC and UCLA, as four-loss teams, would not.

Michigan State at Ohio State

Honestly, this game doesn’t matter too much, because the only way the Big Ten is left out is if there’s a two-loss champion or a one-loss Iowa champion. But one fewer undefeated team and a thus a weaker Big Ten is always a good thing.

Northwestern at Wisconsin

Just because it’s less important than a quality win doesn’t mean that the quality of your loss isn’t also important.

Boston College at Notre Dame

Yes, I know it feels dirty. But you want Notre Dame to be ranked as high as is humanly possible before the Irish come to The Farm.

Baylor at Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State just needs to lose somehow. You’d prefer for it to be to Baylor and not Oklahoma in Week 13 because you want Oklahoma to lose one more time, just to be sure.

TCU at Oklahoma

Like I said. A one-loss TCU would not be a threat. #Big12LivesDoNotMatter

Colorado at Washington State

It’s actually a crime that Washington State didn’t crack the rankings this week. Again, Stanford beat the Cougars, so you want them ranked at the end of the season. Quality wins and all.

Charleston Southern at Alabama

DIE BAMA DIE

***

I had to resist the urge to go ahead and pick the Week 13 games for you in this column, too, because some of those picks change depending on who wins some of the above matchups.

A quick disclaimer: Remember that all of these outcomes are out of your hands. Do not be angry if the dominoes don’t fall Stanford’s way and the window of opportunity closes, because Stanford brought this upon itself by losing to Northwestern and Oregon. Do not be angry at me, either, because I’m just the messenger.

The best you can hope for is that Stanford takes care of business the rest of the way through its schedule and wins the Pac-12 — this is just meant to show you which dominoes Stanford should be watching for.

Do you think Charleston Southern has a chance against Alabama? If so, email Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu and let him know that there is, in fact, someone in the world who is crazier than he is.

Two weeks ago, I told Stanford fans to remain hopeful in the football team’s quest for the College Football Playoff. But leaving Stanford Stadium Saturday night, you were as heartbroken as I was, in disbelief and possibly crying on the outside this time. And you likely tried to comfort yourself by imagining how nice New Year’s Day in L.A. and the Rose Bowl would be. But don’t lie to yourself, it’s decidedly less suave, less cool and more flowery.

Still, I urge you not to despair and hold off on New Year’s plans for just another few weeks. While faint, there is a chance that Stanford can be the first two-loss playoff bound team. For one, there is precedent. Several times in the BCS era has a two-loss team finished in the top four. In 2007, LSU even won the national title with two conference losses.  And given the CFP committee’s favorable ranking of Stanford this week at No. 11, we need not pass any other two-loss team. Only six teams stand in Stanford’s way if it is to win out. And many of them play each other in the next two weeks.

But first win the Big Game, and then beat No. 4 Notre Dame and after that, beat (presumably) No. 13 Utah in the Pac-12 championship game. Then, Stanford will definitely need the luck of the Irish.

Next:

Iowa, at No. 5, will play Ohio State or another Big Ten East champion on Dec. 5. Given the Hawkeyes’ weak schedule, a loss to the Buckeyes will likely send them tumbling down the rankings, even below Stanford, despite Iowa’s one quality win against a common opponent in Northwestern.

Oklahoma State, at No. 6, likely needs to lose for Stanford to make it. The CFP committee went from questioning the Big 12 last week to open disdain this week in dropping TCU to No. 18 and keeping Iowa ranked above Oklahoma State. If one conference is to be left out other than the Pac-12, surely it has to be the Big 12. We already know from last season that the CFP committee has some misgivings with the conference for not having a title game. This may be the season when a one-loss Big 12 champion is omitted in lieu of a two-loss Pac-12 champion. Luckily for Stanford, Oklahoma State plays No. 10 Baylor and No. 7 Oklahoma in consecutive weeks.

Oklahoma, at No. 7, finishes the season against No. 18 TCU and then at Oklahoma State, its state rivals. Even if they beat TCU, the Horned Frogs at this rate will be dropped from the rankings if they lose again. The Sooners’ best wins would then be at a relatively high-ranked Baylor and Oklahoma State. Those are two quality road wins, but can that beat Stanford’s victories at USC (ranked No. 6 at the time in the AP), at Washington State and home against UCLA and Notre Dame? And, Stanford has the luxury of playing in a title game against possibly a top-10 Utah team. Maybe the Sooners will be this season’s TCU, rising to No. 4 if Stanford beats Notre Dame, and then, like TCU last year, being leapfrogged (no pun intended) by Stanford once it wins its conference championship game.

Florida, at No. 8, plays No. 16 FSU next week and then probably No. 2 Alabama in the SEC Championship. A loss in either of those games eliminates the Gators.

At No. 9, Michigan State would have to upset No. 3 Ohio State on the road this weekend, and then go on to win the Big Ten. If the Spartans did that, they would likely be in but also force Ohio State out. Even if Ohio State only has one loss, its weak schedule will prevent it from ranking higher than a two-loss Stanford team. Only one Big Ten team will realistically make the playoff, so two of the three Big Ten teams ahead of Stanford will eliminate each other from contention.

Baylor, at No. 10, will play at Oklahoma State next week followed by a trip to TCU. Even if Baylor wins out, Oklahoma State stands to be the Bears’ only win against a final ranked opponent. Strength of schedule will hurt the eye test, and the CFP committee will rank Stanford ahead of Baylor.

Stanford, sitting at No. 11, has to hope that Oregon beats USC this weekend. This would make the Cardinal’s loss to the Ducks better and also clear a path for Utah to win the Pac-12 South, allowing Stanford to face the highest-ranked opponent possible in its final game.

And the same logic from two weeks ago still holds (if Stanford wins out, it will finish ranked at least No. 5) but to a more tenuous degree. And any additional upsets resulting in a one-loss Big 12, ACC or Big Ten champion, or a two-loss SEC champion, will almost certainly allow the Cardinal to sneak in as the last playoff team.

Stanford fans should scoreboard watch all Saturday. Hope for upsets upon upsets upon even more upsets. I don’t think it’s possible at this point to “keep calm” as I advised two weeks ago, but maybe this week’s slogan should be “keep watching,” for upsets and for nail-biting finishes. And of course, BEAT CAL!

Playoff Benchmark Tracker:

After Week 12:

• Beat Cal
• Jump the loser of Baylor / Oklahoma State,
• Jump the loser of Ohio State / Michigan State
• Final Rank: #9

After Week 13:

• Beat Notre Dame
• Jump the loser of Oklahoma/Oklahoma State (and hope the Cowboys are not undefeated)
• Jump Ohio State if it loses to Michigan  
• Jump Florida if it loses to Florida State
• Final Rank: #6

After Week 14

• Beat Utah
• Jump Big 10 runner up (Iowa / Ohio State or other team who loses)
• Jump one loss Big 12 team.
• Final Rank:  #4

Is the glass 10 percent full, or is it actually 90 percent empty? Are Stanford’s chances legitimate or is Michael Spelfogel just trying to procrastinate on his econ problem set by brainstorming playoff scenarios? Let him know by sending him an email at mspel ‘at’ stanford.edu.