This is why it pays off to play in the Pac-12.

Stanford, even with two losses, is still alive and kicking in the hunt for the College Football Playoff, and after these most recent rankings that put the Cardinal at No. 7, it could even be argued that Stanford has a pretty clear shot at the Playoff despite the extra loss it has.

This is Stanford’s reward for making it out of the deep Pac-12 and playing a marquee non-conference schedule (get with the times, Big 12), and despite all the media narratives of the Pac-12 having a “down year” and of the conference “cannibalizing” itself out of the Playoff, it’s pretty clear that the College Football Playoff committee sees the Pac-12 for what it is: the deepest conference in America.

If the Cardinal can beat USC on Saturday, they will jump a non-conference champion Ohio State and they will jump whoever loses the Big Ten title game between Michigan State and Iowa, meaning that the absolute worst that a Pac-12 champion Stanford can do is No. 5 in the final rankings.

That makes things pretty clear: Stanford only needs one team in the current final four to lose in order for the Cardinal to be playing in a national semifinal. (Again, if Stanford can beat USC, which is far, far, far from a given.)

There are arguments that can be made where a one-loss Ohio State or a one-loss ACC champion North Carolina could get in over a Pac-12 champion Stanford. I don’t buy them for one second. Not a single bit. Hopefully Michael will explain why in his column next to this one. With that in mind, here are my operating assumptions for this week’s “Who to root for” column:

• If Clemson loses, it will fall out of the top four. There are people arguing that Clemson would have a chance to stay in the Playoff even with a loss in the ACC Championship. These people are dumb and they are the people that your parents warned you about when you were growing up. After Notre Dame and Florida State, the Tigers’ best win is… Miami? North Carolina State? Yeah.
• No, Ohio State is not going to make a move. Forget name value and forget that they’re the defending national champions. This is a team that didn’t even win its own division, let alone its conference. If what the committee says about valuing conference championships is true, Ohio State doesn’t stand even a hint of a chance.
• The Big Ten champion is in. Congratulations, Big Ten. It’s been one hell of a year, and I commend you. Having the Nos. 4, 5, 6, 14, 15 teams in the country is no laughing matter.
• Oklahoma is in. Just like everyone was predicting, right?

All of this is obviously moot if Stanford can’t beat USC in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Saturday. I personally think that USC has a fantastic chance to knock the Cardinal off. But in the case where Stanford is able to hold on and keep its Playoff chase alive, here are the other games you should have your eyes on this weekend. Only two of them matter.

Championship Weekend

(2) Alabama vs. (18) Florida

The likelihood of this happening is about the same as that of the Pope walking into my dorm room and proposing marriage to me on the spot on Sunday. The poor, offensively-challenged Gators don’t stand an inkling of a chance against the Alabama Death Machine©, but since this is technically a possibility that could get Stanford into the Playoff, I’m forced to address it here anyway.

Ever since Florida’s quarterback got busted for juicing doing drugs taking sketchy pills, the performance of the Gators’ backup, Treon Harris, has drifted between “horrifying” and “shield your children’s eyes because they’re going to get scarred for life.” Florida still has a good defense, but that will only serve to make the final score of this game 24-0 instead of 54-0.

But yeah. If Florida somehow manages to pull off one of the crazier upsets in recent memory, Stanford would be in. But don’t count on it. Seriously, don’t.

(1) Clemson vs. (10) North Carolina

Which means that by default, this game is the one that will ultimately dictate whether Stanford has a shot or not. Clemson’s defense has looked like hot garbage over the last few weeks, and North Carolina’s offense has looked excellent all season. Set aside the pain that it will cause you by seeing a school be elite in both football and basketball at the same time and pull for North Carolina in this game, because it’s Stanford’s only fighting chance.

North Carolina will be playing with the largest of all chips on its shoulder after seeing itself ranked behind three two-loss teams, even after ravaging its schedule to the tune of an 11-1 season. This is its opportunity to make a statement and prove that it belongs, and a win over the No. 1 team in the country (a rank I don’t think Clemson deserves) is the one and only opportunity they’re going to get to do that. You’d best hope that the Tar Heels make a big statement.

***

By the way, if any North Carolina fans say that an ACC champion North Carolina should get in over a Pac-12 champion Stanford, please present this with my regards:

North Carolina out-of-conference schedule:

South Carolina (loss) 

North Carolina A&T (FCS — I’ve never even heard of them in my life)

Delaware (FCS — Joe Flacco graduated a long time ago)

Illinois

Stanford out-of-conference schedule:

No. 14 Northwestern (loss)

No. 8 Notre Dame

UCF (might as well be FCS, but totally not)

If you’re going to schedule two FCS teams and play an eight-game conference schedule, you damn well better go undefeated. And North Carolina failed to do that. Goodbye, see you next year.

 

Send Do-Hyoung Park suggestions for how to get the Pope to propose to him at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu.

As the normally pristine Stanford Stadium turf filled with thousands of shoes mixed with a handful of metallic gold helmets lodged in its surface Saturday night, fans and players reveled in one of the most stunning finishes in living memory. Justifiably overwhelmed by the moment, few thought about the relevance of what had just occurred. Few registered the ramifications of the field goal that tore hearts out of the Irish faithful. And few realized the slim glimmer of hope that remained despite all of the adversity the Cardinal have faced this season.

But yesterday, the College Football Playoff Committee turned that slim glimmer into a more robust supposition. Stanford is now ranked No. 7: That much was completely expected. But North Carolina is ranked No. 10, and Baylor is ranked No. 12. Both of those rankings lend credence to the belief that the Committee questions the strength of the Big 12 and ACC.

While the simplest path to the playoff for the Cardinal would be a win coupled with an Alabama loss, a Clemson loss should also allow Stanford to enter the playoff. UNC (Clemson’s opponent) would have to jump five teams after the win to make the Playoff. The team’s low ranking from the Committee this week suggests that even a resounding Tar Heel victory would not be enough for them to sneak in over Stanford.

Comparing the possibility of Stanford (Pac-12 Champions), UNC (ACC Champions) and Ohio State gaining a spot in the Playoff, Stanford surely edges out the other two opponents. The Committee will not put in two Big Ten teams since the winner of the conference title game is a shoe-in. The Buckeyes got unlucky with an ill-timed loss and weak strength of schedule, but such is life. Ohio State is a lock for the Rose Bowl now, but nothing loftier.

UNC, even with a victory over the No. 1 team in the country, has an extremely weak schedule compared with Stanford’s. The Tar Heels played two FCS opponents and lost to an atrocious South Carolina team. They will not jump that many spots with a victory. It would secure a New Year’s Six bowl for them, as well as a Playoff berth for the Cardinal.

But there is also one other scenario that most people neglected to mention. Pundits assumed that Oklahoma at No. 3 is a guarantee at this point, having locked up the Big 12 in resounding fashion. But the Sooners have a loss as ugly as UNC’s to South Carolina: They lost to a seven-loss Texas team, the same Texas team that lost to Cal and was clobbered by Notre Dame. Both of those two teams are in Stanford’s win column this year.

Furthermore, if the sub-500 Longhorns upset Baylor in Waco this weekend, one of Oklahoma’s marquee wins is watered down to a mere quality opponent victory in the Committee’s eyes. The ripple effects could also drop TCU lower since its win over Baylor is the largest bullet on its resume.

Suddenly Oklahoma’s immaculate C.V. boils down to one great victory in the Bedlam game, but not much more: A win against a Baylor team that will have lost three of its past four games, a victory at home to TCU where the Sooners conceded the last 16 points haplessly and were two yards from losing the game and a loss to a Texas team that already has seven losses!  Notwithstanding is the fact that other than Tennessee, Oklahoma’s non-conference opponents are relatively weak as well. I am not saying Oklahoma can or should be left out, but the Committee showed its disdain for the Big 12 schedule by dropping TCU from No. 3 to No. 6 in its final rankings last year after the Horned Frog’s 55-3 finale victory. If a 52-point drubbing can drop you three spots in the rankings, then a bye week certainly can, too.

Stanford though, must first take care of business in Santa Clara, which against a surging USC team is no easy task. A win guarantees the Cardinal at least a Rose Bowl appearance, with Ohio State as the likely opponenet. With some chaos in the ACC or SEC Championships or maybe even in the only Big 12 game of the week, Stanford will be in the playoff.

On Saturday, prepare for the worst but hope for the best. Maybe, just maybe, this is our year.

 

Tell Michael Spelfogel why Oklahoma will absolutely not drop out of the top four at mspel ‘at’ stanford.edu.