Coming off a rebounding victory against Arizona, Stanford (5-3, 3-3 Pac-12) plays host to the Oregon State Beavers (2-6, 1-4) as the Cardinal hope to continue their momentum in conference play. Senior staff writer Andrew Mather and editors Lorenzo Rosas and Olivia Hummer discuss how the Cardinal can ensure another victory against a lesser opponent this Saturday.
In the desert, Stanford found offensive success on the ground against the ninth-ranked Pac-12 rushing defense, scoring 34 points against the Wildcats behind Christian McCaffrey’s three-touchdown, 169-yard performance. On the other hand, starting quarterback Keller Chryst threw for just 104 yards, scoring twice and throwing an interception. Against a statistically weaker run defense yet better pass defense in Oregon State this weekend, will McCaffrey and the run game once again overwhelm for victory or will Chryst be called upon to have a better game in his first start at home?
Olivia Hummer (OH): It is difficult to understate how important a healthy McCaffrey is to this Stanford offense. His performance in Arizona made that clear, especially in comparison to the lackluster offensive showings of previous weeks. The illusory dream of a real McCaffrey-Love running back tandem has yet to be fully realized, but I’m holding out some hope that I’ll see it soon since Shaw is claiming that last week was the first time both backs were at full health.
That being said, Stanford’s offense cannot rely solely on the run.
Sure, the Cardinal won games at the start of the season, but they weren’t always pretty, and you can’t honestly claim that McCaffrey’s performance looked nearly as good as it did in his Heisman chase 2015. With the loss of much of last year’s offensive line, McCaffrey has had to battle for every yard, and with the loss of quarterback Kevin Hogan, much of McCaffrey’s threat through the air has been erased. Without a viable replacement under center, opposing defenses have little trouble zeroing in on the Heisman runner-up, limiting his effectiveness.
If Stanford wants to win its upcoming games, Chryst needs to step up at quarterback to revitalize the passing game. He may have another week to ramp up, given that he’s facing the Beavers, but with bowl eligibility on the line, the time is now.
Andrew Mather (AM): Gary Andersen certainly knows how to coach a defense, but honestly I don’t think either Christian McCaffrey or Keller Chryst need to turn in particularly impressive performances for the Cardinal to top this Beavers squad. While Oregon State has looked good at home, it’s been a totally different team on the road this season, and even if Stanford’s offense isn’t totally on its game I think it would take a lot from the Beavs to make things close. With that said, I expect Chryst to improve this weekend as he builds more rapport with his receivers and offensive line and, if all goes according to plan, that should open up the Cardinal’s running game even more than in the team’s recent performances. It doesn’t seem like it would take a ton for this Stanford offense to recover its mojo, and with a couple games against low-rated defenses coming up, it should have the opportunity to set itself up for a strong finish.
Lorenzo Rosas (LR): McCaffrey’s game, somewhat reminiscent of a WildCaff performance from last season, still remains to be the only game in which the Heisman-runner up found his stride and had the luxury to be as patient as desired. After only above average performance in his return back from injury, I still remain doubtful that Stanford will have the capability to ride McCaffrey throughout the entire game.
That being said, I still remain a big fan of the dual threat that Bryce Love and Christian McCaffrey bring to the table, and that’s why I would say Chryst has yet another game to work out some kinks in the offense. In the Arizona game, Shaw talked about how much he enjoyed having the two together and healthy for the first time this season, showing just how big of a piece has been lost in Shaw’s game-planning up to this point. Against the Oregon State Beavers defense, who averages 219.4 yards allowed on the ground per game, I’m confident that Love’s speed and McCaffrey’s patience, along with immense physicality from both, will demolish a demoralized run defense.
Despite suffering two successive blowouts against the Washington teams, the Cardinal still stand as third in the conference in scoring defense, allowing just 19 points per game. Since the Washington State game, the Cardinal have allowed only 10 points per game in three consecutive outings against star-studded offenses. Against an offense nearly as pass inefficient as Stanford this season, what’s the biggest concern for Lance Anderson and his defense as they prepare to host the Beavers?
OH: Much of Stanford’s defensive woes in those blowouts can be attributed to the loss of key defensive playmakers, namely cornerbacks Alijah Holder and Quenton Meeks. Sure, there’s a lot more to it, but with an injured secondary and an offense that can’t be trusted to get a first down – much less score — any defense is bound to lose a few. The Cardinal were far from flawless in their matchup with Colorado, but they stepped up when it counted, particularly in the red zone.
With Oregon State starting quarterback Darell Garretson ruled out for the remainder of the season due to injury in early October, it seemed there would be little passing threat from the Beavers this year. However, the team’s narrow loss to Washington State last weekend may indicate that this Beaver squad is capable of more than meets the eye. A weak opponent is no reason for the Cardinal to get lazy on defense, and with every game making or breaking Stanford’s postseason plans, expect the team to look as strong as it has in recent weeks, while also accounting for the season-ending injury to Holder.
AM: I’ve had a secret technique at points this season where, almost regardless of the Stanford’s opponent, I would pick the team’s defense to allow 10 points per game. While the two schools from The Evergreen State certainly eclipsed that number, all things considered, it has served me remarkably well so far — in four of six games, the team has allowed exactly 10 points, and in two others it has been within 3 of that total. While Oregon State will obviously present a new set of challenges to the Cardinal, I highly doubt there’s anything they can do to totally get out of this range. The Beavers have been little short of anemic on the road this year, and Stanford’s defense has shown it can contain everyone short of the very best units in the country.
The only thing I’m even slightly worried about is the Beavers running game. Ryan Nall and company did a solid job against Wazzu last weekend and, as Stanford fans know, the Cougars’ front seven is far from incompetent. The Cardinal’s own defensive line appears to have stepped up in recent games, however, and if they can generally hold form, I doubt that Oregon State will pose too much of a threat to the home side this weekend.
LR: Going into any Pac-12 game (especially the upset-specialists from Corvallis), the Stanford defense has no reason to relax against the Beavers despite their atrocious pass offense on the season so far. Against the last in the Pac-12 North, it’s hard to see the stout Cardinal defense crack under an offense so unstable and inefficient as the Beavers.
The only true offensive threat that can explode is starting running back and lead rusher Ryan Nall, who, despite averaging only 85 yards per game, leads the team in touchdowns, with the nearest tally being a three-way tie at three touchdowns. Nall remains extremely talented at making defenders miss in the open space despite his imposing body, which he also uses to his advantage on his way to averaging 7.2 yards per carry this season. While the sophomore will be heavily watched by the Cardinal defense, if Oregon State is to get any momentum and create drives in Stanford stadium, Nall will need to be at the forefront of that attack.
Contact Olivia Hummer at ohummer ‘at’ stanford.edu, Andrew Mather at amather ‘at’ stanford.edu and Lorenzo Rosas at enzor9 ‘at’ stanford.edu.