Here’s how a second Trump presidency could impact U.S. relationships with China and Japan

Jan. 22, 2025, 11:50 p.m.

The trajectory of arising issues within China and Japan that hinge on their relationships with the U.S. are now at the whims of conflict management and possible decisions made by the Donald Trump administration, experts said during an event held last Wednesday.

Stanford’s Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center (APARC) Japan Program and the Consulate General of Japan in San Francisco hosted an event on the future of U.S. relations with China and Japan. Professors who attended emphasized how much potential Trump’s second administration has to impact the two countries domestically and internationally.

Akio Takahara, a distinguished visiting professor at Tokyo’s Women Christian University, was joined by Shorenstein APARC fellows Thomas Fingar M.A. ’69 Ph.D. ’77 and Kiyoteru Tsutsui Ph.D. ’02 to discuss both China and Japan’s future stability under Trump’s administration. The speakers highlighted many of the ongoing issues in the countries, primarily in China. 

Amid demotions of high-ranking military personnel, the rise of crime and rumors of faction building in China, Takahara said the country is facing an economic downturn that creates more turmoil within the country.

“​​People generally are losing confidence in the regime — losing confidence in the leader and in the future [of China],” Takahara said.

While China’s long-term goal is to win its strategic competition with the U.S., Takahara noted that China first has to work towards stabilizing its relationship with the U… This includes continuing the economic working group meetings between both countries, which serve as a channel to “discuss and facilitate progress on bilateral economic policy matters,” according to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, and military-to-military exchanges to sustain dialogue and conflict management.

“To win the strategic competition, [China has] to develop,” Takahara said, “In order to develop, they have to have stable relations with the sole superpower — the United States.”

Japan also faces similar struggles as it looks to further strengthen its alliance with the U.S. With Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba potentially visiting the U.S. next month, Takahara said he will most likely prioritize the discussion of Nippon Steel taking over US Steel. 

While both countries have their respective agendas, Trump’s potential responses remain unknown. However, Fingar noted there might not be as much initial movement as one might think.

“It’s my judgment that he will not make China the centerpiece or the starting point for his administration’s policy…most of his agenda is domestic,” Fingar said. “Where one starts in American policymaking has a big impact on budgetary allocations.”

Even if changes to global relations aren’t at the forefront of Trump’s policies, Tsutsui said international students and workers are concerned about renewing and obtaining visas. 

“Elon Musk and some of the tech billionaires would probably want to keep the flow of the most talented people from the world coming to the United States. But other people [in Trump’s administration] might have another intention,” Tsutsui said. “The result of [the clash in ideas] would really shape that policy toward immigration.”

Takhara said he remained optimistic, but uncertain.

“Judging from [Trump’s] first administration, some people here in Tokyo hope that things will not be that bad, but we don’t know,” Takahara said. “We cannot be sure what his policies towards Japan are going to be… so we are sort of bracing ourselves at the moment.”

Sterling Davies '28 writes for News and Sports. Contact news 'at' stanforddaily.com

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