For nearly a decade, Stanford football spent the holidays recovering with family and watching bowl games on television. Now, the No. 6 Cardinal is closing out its second consecutive winning season, and a bowl berth is merely a formality.

Bowl placement, though, is far from a formality, and with two games to play, Stanford’s bowl fate has yet to be decided. Upcoming contests against California and Oregon State will go a long way toward determining the Cardinal’s bowl destination, but the final decision could rest in the hands of outsiders. With that in mind, here are possible bowl scenarios for Stanford football, along with the likelihood of each, going from most to least likely.

Rose Bowl

The Granddaddy of Them All is the aspiration for most Cardinal fans, and it becomes more and more likely with each passing week.

Scenario: Stanford would need to beat both Cal and Oregon State, and then get some help, in order to spend New Year’s in Pasadena. If No. 1 Oregon lost both of its remaining contests (vs. No. 22 Arizona and at Oregon State), the Cardinal would be the outright Pac-10 champion, and therefore get a spot in the Rose Bowl (assuming Stanford does not finish in the top two in the final BCS standings).

A more likely scenario involves the Cardinal entering the Rose Bowl as an at-large BCS selection. The only way this can happen is if Oregon is playing for the national title, leaving a spot open for Stanford. BCS rules require the Rose Bowl to take a qualified school from outside the BCS conferences if one is available, meaning No. 3 TCU or No. 4 Boise State would have to get in ahead of Stanford. The chance for the Cardinal is if TCU or Boise State is in the national title game against Oregon, the Rose Bowl will be free to select Stanford to take on the Big 10 representative. This would happen if No. 2 Auburn loses one of its final two contests (at No. 11 Alabama and vs. No. 17 South Carolina in the SEC Championship Game), which is a distinct possibility.

Likelihood: As unlikely as it seemed a few weeks ago, the Rose Bowl is now a very good possibility for Stanford, as long as the Cardinal doesn’t trip up against the Golden Bears or Beavers. Most experts expect Auburn to struggle against Alabama in Tuscaloosa, and a loss there would put either TCU or Boise State in the title game, making Stanford’s appearance in Pasadena almost assured.

Alamo Bowl

If Stanford stumbles or is shut out of the BCS, it will likely head to San Antonio for the Alamo Bowl.

Scenario: A loss against Cal or Oregon State would eliminate the Cardinal from BCS contention, but the Cardinal could also get left out of a BCS game at 11-1. Stanford has the No. 2 spot in the Pac-10 all but locked up, and the best Pac-10 team that isn’t in a BCS game will play in the Alamo Bowl.

Likelihood: Cal and Oregon State will not make things easy for Stanford, so a loss in either game is not out of the question. Also, if Auburn and Oregon win out, the Cardinal could very well be headed for Texas in December yet again.

Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl or Sugar Bowl

With Stanford in the top 10 of the BCS standings, an at-large selection to a BCS bowl would appear to be a possibility, although this is where national perception comes into play.

Scenario: If Stanford wins its next two games and the Cardinal doesn’t make the Rose Bowl or title game, an at-large spot in one of the other BCS games is up for grabs. The Cardinal’s on-field resume certainly qualifies it for a spot in a premier bowl game, but other factors might prevent Stanford’s selection. The Fiesta Bowl will choose the Big 12 champion first, and because it has the last choice, will likely get stuck with the Big East champion, so Stanford will not play there. That leaves the Orange Bowl and the Sugar Bowl, which each have one spot open for an at-large entry.

Likelihood: BCS bowls choose their participants in large part for monetary reasons, and Stanford has one of the smaller fan bases among top teams, meaning less money in ticket sales and tourism in the area. It is unlikely that either the Orange or Sugar would take the Cardinal for these reasons, unless (for example) the Sugar Bowl takes No. 5 LSU as the hometown team and decides to take a chance on Stanford. If Stanford somehow finishes in the top four of the BCS standings, though, it will be guaranteed a spot in a BCS bowl.

Other

Stanford is still theoretically alive for the BCS National Championship Game, and it could also finish as low as third in the Pac-10.

Scenario: If complete and utter chaos hits the BCS, the Cardinal has a slight chance at a national title game appearance. If complete and utter chaos hits the Pac-10, the Cardinal could play in the Holiday Bowl. Neither is likely. To play in the biggest game of the year, Stanford would need four of the five teams ahead of it in the standings to lose (some maybe twice). The Cardinal is guaranteed at least second in the Pac-10, and therefore no worse than the Alamo Bowl, if it wins either of its remaining games or if Oregon State loses at least once.

Likelihood: Almost none. Chaos has a way of infiltrating college football, but either scenario would be beyond insane.