In preparation for the upcoming matchup between No. 9 Stanford and the Colorado Buffaloes, The Stanford Daily’s Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) had a chance to ask a few questions to Justin Guerriero (@TheHungry_Hippo), one of the football writers at CU Independent, about the state of Colorado football and where the program stands heading into Saturday’s matchup.

The Stanford Daily (TSD): A lot of people have been quick to dismiss Colorado as the doormat of the conference over the last several years, but this year, the Buffs have picked up a conference win and have played close games against Oregon, Arizona and UCLA. How much longer will it take for Colorado to climb out of the cellar of the conference?

Justin Guerriero (JG): I predicted at the beginning of the season that the Colorado Buffaloes would have a winning record and make a bowl game. I’m not ashamed of that claim because as you said, this team has proven this year that it can compete in the Pac-12 Conference. The Buffs are just coming up a bit short.

However, I’m convinced that success is right around the bend for the Buffaloes. I could see this team turning things around as soon as next season. Quarterback Sefo Liufau will be a senior, and the seniors that the Buffs will lose after this year, namely offensive lineman Stephane Nembot and receiver Nelson Spruce, should not be losses that would cripple the 2016 team.

In other words, this team has the most depth it’s had in quite some time — hands down the most it’s had since head coach Mike MacIntyre was hired before the 2013 season. I think that the Buffaloes have a lot of young, easily developable talent with a lot of potential for the upcoming seasons.

TSD: How much did it mean to the program to get that first conference win since 2013? I understand Mike MacIntyre was quite emotional after that game, and really, who can blame him?

JG: Since the closing seconds of the Buffaloes’ 17-13 conference win on the road against Oregon State, I’ve been trying to downplay how huge of a victory it was.

Granted, the Buffs won a conference game on the road — a combination that has been extremely elusive for this team in recent seasons. But I was not impressed by Colorado barely squeaking by the worst team in the conference, especially the week after losing 38-31 to the much more talented Arizona Wildcats.

But yes, as the clock ran out in that game, Coach Mac dropped to his knees, overtaken with joy. I understand that. His job has been in jeopardy following some irritating losses this year and it’s no doubt been a tough tenure for him at CU so far. What upset me was that MacIntyre treated the victory as a glorified culmination; in actuality, all the win was, besides a check mark in the win column, was a sloppy, drawn-out win over a bad team. The season’s not over. There’s still a lot of work to do. So I’m definitely happy for Coach MacIntyre, but let’s not get too excited here.

TSD: I mentioned that you played Oregon, Arizona and UCLA close, but those were all games that the Buffs ultimately lost. What’s stopping the team from getting over the hump and picking up those big wins when they matter most?

JG: This is the question that fans, coaches and experts alike have been asking themselves all year: “Why can’t the Buffaloes win?” But boy, have they gotten close. They were tied with Oregon at halftime and led both Arizona and UCLA in the fourth quarter before ultimately collapsing in all three instances.

So what’s the problem, you ask? Most of the Buffs’ losses have fallen within this theme: stupid mistakes (turnovers, penalties, etc.) and the offense’s tendency to stall out in key situations.

The losses to Arizona and UCLA are key examples. In both games, the Buffs’ offense had multiple chances to put much-needed points on the board, but failed. If you give good football programs ample opportunities to win a football game, most likely, they will do it.

I would like to commend Colorado’s defense, however. They have generally played pretty well so far this year, but end up looking like trash on the stat sheets because the high-octane offenses that make up the Pac-12 simply wear them down after four quarters of play. In addition, offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren has recently come under fire for being too conservative and predictable. I think that’s a fair criticism. I’m not excusing individual player mistakes, but I do believe that bad play-calling has been the true bane of this football team’s existence.

TSD: How well has Sefo Liufau progressed in his third season under center in Boulder? Even as a veteran starter, Liufau has seemed to struggle with turnovers — how do you think he’ll match up against a Stanford secondary that plays bend-but-don’t-break but also struggles to get takeaways?

JG: I’ve been generally pleased with the way Liufau has carried himself this year. Turnovers have always plagued his performance as a collegiate quarterback, but this season he’s improved quite a bit.

Last year, aside from leading the conference with 15 interceptions, Liufau’s stats were exemplary. He threw 28 touchdowns, completed 65.3 percent of his passes and accounted for 3,336 yards of total offense. But it’s definitely the interceptions that fans remember most prominently. His turnovers last season always seemed to completely deflate the Buffaloes. I won’t blame Colorado’s two-win 2014 campaign solely on Liufau, but his mistakes certainly contributed.

This year, Liufau has played in a more careful manner. His interceptions have gone down, but at the same time, Liufau has consistently missed opportunities to hit open receivers downfield. Sometimes it seems that he’s chosen the target that he’ll throw to before he even drops back to pass. But I don’t even think that the Stanford defense should be worried about forcing turnovers. The key for the defense will be to pressure Liufau relentlessly. If the Cardinal’s front seven can harass CU’s injury-plagued, revolving door of an offensive line enough, they will crumble and as a result Liufau will be constantly on edge.

I will note that Liufau can be impressive when forced to run, but a constant barrage of blitzes, hurries, knockdowns and sacks will likely disrupt any flow for the Buffaloes’ offense. If the defense can do that, I think turnovers will ensue, but trust me — if the defense can apply consistent pressure on Liufau, Stanford won’t even need the turnovers to win.

TSD: On the other side of the ball, Colorado ranks second-to-last in the conference allowing 5.08 yards per rush to opposing runners. Are the Buffaloes going to be able to stop Christian McCaffrey and the Stanford offense? If so, how will they go about doing that?

JG: In terms of stopping McCaffrey — no. Plain and simple. I don’t think he should have any bit of trouble exceeding his average of almost 133 rushing yards per game. The fact that he averages 6.1 yards per rush speaks for itself, as well. CU’s defense has been notoriously bad against the run this season — opposing teams have averaged just over 200 rushing yards a game against the Buffs’ defenders.

Since Colorado has entered Pac-12 play, the defense’s inability to stop the enemy’s run game has become even more evident. Against Oregon, the Buffs allowed 361 rushing yards. Similar results happened versus Arizona State and Arizona, against whom Colorado surrendered 231 and 291 rushing yards. So trust me, McCaffrey should do just fine.

However, I will say that from a pass defense perspective, the Buffaloes have been better than I expected this season. The defense has forced 10 interceptions so far this season, compared to the 3 interceptions total that the Buffs’ defense had all of last year. In other words, Colorado’s secondary has been a surprising positive so far. Last week against UCLA, the defense broke up a season-high 8 passes.

I think that Stanford quarterback Kevin Hogan is an intimidating opponent; it doesn’t seem like he’s the type to make a lot of stupid mistakes. I think that the Buffaloes’ secondary will, at least in some capacity, contain Hogan and company in terms of the passing game. But let it be known — big plays and a full four quarters of football have consistently overwhelmed this Colorado defense in conference games this year. Stanford should look to continue the trend.

TSD: Liufau and Nelson Spruce are obviously going to be the biggest playmakers on the field for the Buffs when they have the ball, but who else should Stanford fans watch out for that could play a critical role in Saturday’s matchup?

JG: Spruce is no doubt the pride and joy of Colorado’s offense. Last year, while playing for the abysmal 2014 Buffs, Spruce caught 106 passes for 1,198 yards and scored 12 touchdowns. This season, it’s been slower for him — largely because opposing defenses know that Liufau likes to throw to him quite a bit.

But mark my words: Teams who do not give Spruce extra attention pay the price. This year, on top of becoming the Pac-12’s all-time leader in receptions, Spruce is leading the Buffs with 29 catches for 10 yards or more.

Aside from Spruce, this Buffaloes team features an impressive receiving core. Sophomore receiver Shay Fields is another guy to keep an eye on. He leads the team with four receiving touchdowns and is a favorite long-range target of Liufau’s. Stanford should also watch out for tailback Phillip Lindsay. The 5-foot-8, 180-pound sophomore averages 4.79 yards per carry.

He’s a smart, quick force that will disrupt defenses — especially if he gets outside. The bad play-calling that I hinted at earlier applies directly to Lindsay, though. A lot of the plays that he is involved in have made me scratch my head. Stanford should be ready to close holes up the middle, because the Buffs love to run draw plays with Lindsay following the center.

TSD: Vegas has Stanford as 16-point favorites going into the game — how does that sound to you? How do you see the game playing out? What does Colorado need to do to pull off the upset?

JG: Only 16 points?! Thanks, Vegas, we here in Boulder appreciate that generous estimate.

Honestly, I’ve never doubted the Buffaloes’ ability to compete with a team this season. Stanford is the best team that CU has faced so far this year, and the Buffaloes will certainly be tested. What I do doubt is Colorado’s ability to play a full four quarters of smart football against a team like Stanford.

I think that the Buffs will keep it close going into halftime, but ultimately will crumble in familiar fashion and lose. That is exactly what cannot happen if this team wants to even stand a chance against the Cardinal. The Buffs cannot afford to shoot themselves in the foot in any way, shape or form this Saturday, which, knowing them, seems like an unreasonable demand.

I think that penalties, ineffectiveness on offense, and a few big plays for Stanford sprinkled throughout the game will lose the game for the Buffs. I’m thinking the final score will be somewhere in the neighborhood of 45-24 Stanford.

But I specifically said final score for a reason. It’s been such a roller coaster ride this season watching this team play so well for two or three quarters, only to blow it in the end. I think that Colorado’s chances of beating Stanford are slim, but if the score is tied at halftime, I may very well allow myself to get excited. Players and coaches alike are expecting a tough contest, so I’m interested to see what Saturday brings. Hopefully not a blowout.

 

Contact Do-Hyoung Park at dhpark ‘at’ stanford.edu and Justin Guerriero at justin.guerriero ‘at’ colorado.edu.